Strategy

Each regular season week, a total of $700 will be bet over eight Sunday
games. Six of the games will be hedged moneyline bets ($600), and two
will form a parlay ($100). For the moneyline games, bets are placed on
each team, such that the maximum total loss is 33 per cent. However,
there is a sliding confidence scale, with two games at a max loss of 50
per cent (most confident), two games at 30 per cent, and two at 20 per
cent. The table below illustrates the strategy, and is the format used
for weekly picks.

The first six rows show the moneyline picks, the next two show the
parlay, and the final row shows the totals. The “Pick_R” column shows
the potential return in dollars if the “Pick” team wins, while the
“Opp_R” column shows the potential loss if the “Opponent” wins. For the
totals, the first two values show the potential win and loss in
percentage terms. For example, the max potential win here is $216 and
the max potential return is 31 per cent. Preference will be for teams
within the spread range of -3.0 to +5.0, with a bias to put heavy
favorites into the parlay, but this is not a hard rule.

For the playoffs, a total of $1,400 is bet, with a max loss of 43 per
cent each week. In the wildcard and divisional rounds, there is a $100
two-game parlay, with the remaining capital distributed evenly over the
remaining games. There are no parlays in the conference and superbowl
rounds. Total starting capital is $4,000, and total capital employed
over the full season is $14,000.