Total starting capital is $4,000, and each week (including the playoffs and superbowl) $700 will be bet, for total capital employed of $15,400. Each regular season week, eight Sunday games will be picked. Six of the games will be hedged moneyline bets ($600), and two will form a parlay ($100). For the playoffs, there are no parlays, and the weekly capital is distributed evenly over the weekly games ($600 for the wildcard and superbowl, and $800 for the divisional and conference). For the moneyline games, bets are placed on each team, such that the maximum total loss is 33 per cent. However, there is a sliding confidence scale, with two games at a max loss of 50 per cent (most confident), two games at 30 per cent, and two at 20 per cent. The table below illustrates the strategy, and is the format used for weekly picks.
| Pick | Opponent | Total | Pick_R | Opponent_R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | CLE | 100 | +15 | -20 |
| DET | BAL | 100 | +18 | -20 |
| PIT | LAR | 100 | +33 | -30 |
| DEN | GB | 100 | +23 | -30 |
| MIA | PHI | 100 | +50 | -50 |
| KC | LAC | 100 | +18 | -50 |
| BUF | NE | 50 | +29 | -50 |
| SEA | ARI | 50 | +29 | -50 |
| +31 | -43 | 700 | +216 | -300 |
The first six rows show the moneyline picks, the next two show the parlay, and the final row shows the totals. The “Pick_R” column shows the potential return in dollars if the “Pick” team wins, while the “Opponent_R” column shows the potential loss if the “Opponent” wins. For the totals, the first two values show the potential win and loss in percentage terms. For example, the max potential win here is $216 and the max potential return is 31 per cent. Preference will be for teams within the spread range of -3.0 to +5.0, with a bias to put heavy favorites into the parlay, but this is not a hard rule.