Author: Matthew

Risk on again this week, taking two road teams in the parlay with the Jags and Falcons, averaging an even spread. Also taking two road dogs in the mid-range with the Colts and Browns (although both teams are positive on point margins). One more road dog in the low-confidence spot with the Steelers over the …

In the parlay, taking AFC West road favorites in the Chargers and Chiefs, with an average spread of -3.0. In the confidence spots, taking favorites in the Steelers at home, and the Texans on the road. Picking three dogs this week, two in the low confidence spots with the Bears and Seahawks, and one in …

Risking up this week, taking Cleveland and Houston in the parlay, and picking two dogs in the low confidence spots, with the Vikings winning at home, and the Cards winning on the road against a division rival. Picking favorites elsewhere; all home teams except for the Rams. Year-to-date risk in equilibrium compared to last year …

Trying to claw back some losses with another risk off week. In the parlay, taking favorites that average 4.5 points, about the same as the 4.6 average YTD in the category. Picking two dogs this week, with Buffalo at home in the confidence spot, and Denver on the road in the low-confidence spot. Otherwise, taking …

Risk off this week, with heavy favorites in the parlay and the mid-range spots. More risk in the high confidence spots, with the Bears winning in Baltimore as underdogs, and Houston winning at home against the Niners in a pick em. In the low confidence spots, picking another road dog in Dallas, and a road …

More risk this week, bringing YTD in-line with average, and mostly driven by the parlay, taking two road dogs in the Colts and Commanders. Indy has a wide point margin, and willing to ride with them and take my losses. Also betting on Dan Quinn to get the upper hand in Dallas. Taking risk off …

Trying to claw back some losses with another risk-off week, at 26 per cent return potential. Heavier favorites in the parlay with the Rams getting a bounce back win over the Ravens, and the Colts stopping the Cards from getting theirs. In the high confidence spots, just betting on offense in the Cowboys and Bucs. …

Risk-off this week, bringing total YTD return potential down to last year’s average at 43 per cent, even though I am taking four dogs. Hoping that at least one mid-range and one low confidence pick come through to break even there, then make or break for the week will come down to the heavy favorites. …

Risk-on this week at 74 per cent potential return, about the same as last year’s max (also in week 4, which ultimately lost). Taking the home dogs in the high confidence spots and hoping for a least one upset to make profit. Less confident in the mid-range picks, betting against Indy’s momentum and the Niners …

So far this year all my 7 dog picks have lost, and 3 of 9 favorites have lost. Last year, 62% of my picks were favorites, versus 52% through the first two weeks. This week, taking 6 favorites and two dogs, bringing the weight back up to 63%, and total return potential down from above …